From Rockets to Runways to Payment Rails — 7 Q2 Earnings in Focus

Taking a Look at Rocket Lab, Arrowhead Pharma, Avita Medical, Sky Harbour Group, Global-e, AST SpaceMobile, & dLocal Earnings Results.

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This week, we covered quarterly results from seven companies across our coverage:

Rocket Lab (RKLB): Neutron Is the Hinge

Solid execution on Electron and Space Systems while Neutron’s timeline remains the swing factor for margin inflection. Backlog growth and a healthier mix from Space Systems support 2H momentum, but profitability still depends on Neutron milestones and capex discipline. Our IVT base case remains in line pending clearer Neutron schedule/cost updates; we continue to model upside leverage if first flights de-risk in 2026.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR): Launch-Ready with Four Phase 3s

Q3 FY2025 (June) marked steady clinical and BD execution: plozasiran NDA accepted (PDUFA Nov 18, 2025), multiple Phase 3 programs fully enrolled/initiated, and a $100M milestone from Sarepta on ARO-DM1 with another $200M likely by year-end if enrollment thresholds are hit. Cash resources of ~$900M support launch prep and late-stage trials. Our IVT fair value stays unchanged; thesis leans on successful plozasiran approval plus durable cardiometabolic expansion.

AVITA Medical (RCEL): Reset Mode, Survival Math

Results and repeated financings reinforce a more conservative “survival-mode” path: slower revenue ramp, delayed breakeven, and dilution risk. We revised the IVT base case (from our Q1 update), reflecting lower near-term growth, higher share count, and a still-valuable platform if execution stabilizes into 2026+.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): From Demos to Deployment

Pro forma liquidity >$1.5B funds an aggressive 2025–2026 launch cadence (45–60 satellites targeted) and intermittent U.S. service by late 2025. H2’25 revenue outlook ($50–$75M) plus spectrum wins (L/S-Band paths) bolster the commercial story, but execution/financing sequencing and manufacturing scale remain key watch-items. Our IVT stays in line near term; we’ll revisit as Block-2 satellites deploy and early service KPIs land.

Sky Harbour Group (SKYH): Hangars, Leases, and NOI Ramp

Leasing metrics and campus expansion continue to track: weighted occupancy trending upward across an ~0.9M rentable-SF footprint, with recurring rental revenue driving mix. Development pipeline visibility is improving (more shovels in the ground, clearer timelines), and obligated-group disclosures support a credible path to scaled NOI. IVT unchanged; upside hinges on lease-up velocity and project delivery cadence.

Global-E (GLBE): Borderless Growth, First GAAP Profit

Q2 delivered GMV $1.45B (+34% YoY), revenue $214.9M (+28% YoY), and first GAAP net profit, with full-year guidance raised. Shopify partnership enhancements and the ReturnGo acquisition deepen the moat; margins continue to scale with volume. Our IVT fair value is reaffirmed; risk-reward remains favorable as GLBE approaches a $1B revenue run-rate.

dLocal (DLO): Local Rails, Global Scale

Record TPV $9.2B (+53% YoY), revenue $256.5M (+50% YoY), and adj. EBITDA $70.1M (+64% YoY); 2025 guidance raised across TPV, revenue, GP, and EBITDA. Mix and FX headwinds are moderating, operating leverage improving, and FCF conversion remains excellent—even after a $150M dividend. Our IVT base case moves up.

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