Rocket Lab’s Q4 2024 Results: Strong Growth, But All Eyes on Neutron
Taking a Look at Rocket Lab's (RKLB) Earnings Results.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) wrapped up Q4 2024 with an impressive $132M in revenue—a 121% jump YoY. This brought full-year revenue to $436M, up 78% from 2023, thanks to strong showings in both launch services and space systems. Despite those bright spots, the company is still unprofitable (expected), and the outlook it provided left investors feeling uneasy. Management remains laser-focused on developing Neutron, but delays on that front added to concerns. Overall, most of the results matched analyst expectations—except for the soft guidance and the Neutron delay, which overshadowed the otherwise solid performance. This fueled to a decline in the stock price after-hours and in today’s trading day.
Rocket Lab’s Q4 & FY 2024 Results
Revenue & Growth:
Q4 2024 revenue: $132.4M (beat analyst estimate of $130.6M), up 121% YoY.
Full-year 2024 revenue: $436M, up 78% YoY.
Growth drivers: Increased Electron launch cadence, hypersonic test launches (HASTE), and space systems contracts.
Margins & Profitability:
GAAP gross margin: 27.8% (within guidance of 26%-28%).
Non-GAAP gross margin: 34% (within guidance of 32%-34%).
EPS: -$0.10 (met expectations).
Adjusted EBITDA loss: $23.2M, better than expected (guided for $27M-$29M loss).
Q1 2025 Guidance (Weaker Than Expected):
Revenue forecast: $117M-$123M, below analyst estimate of $135.7M.
Key reasons for lower guidance:
Lower launch ASPs due to customer mix.
Slower milestone payments in space systems contracts.
Higher Neutron development spending.
Neutron Updates (Delayed Again):
New launch timeline: Shifted from mid-2025 to H2 2025.
Reason for delay: Management claims it’s only “a few months,” no major technical issues cited.
Development milestones still pending:
Full vehicle integration
Final Archimedes engine qualification
Neutron’s long-term profitability depends on reusability, but:
First flight will generate no revenue
Booster recovery not planned until 2026
Competition concern: SpaceX Falcon 9 remains the dominant medium-lift option.
Backlog & Contracts:
Total backlog: $1.07B.
Launch backlog: $386M.
Space systems backlog: $681M.
50% of backlog expected to convert to revenue within 12 months.
Reliance on government contracts: While backlog is 50% commercial, most revenue ultimately comes from defense & national security.
Launch & Space Systems Business:
Electron launch cadence adjusted:
2025 forecast: 20+ missions (down from previous 26+ estimate)
Management claims slowdown is due to customer readiness, not demand
HASTE (hypersonic test launches) demand remains strong.
Space systems growth steady, but backlog growth has slowed.
Cash Position & Expenses:
Cash & equivalents: $484M (down slightly from Q3).
Capex (Q4 2024): $21.5M, up $10.5M from Q3.
Spending drivers: Neutron development, SDA satellite program costs, increased IT security.
My Take
RKLB’s latest quarter and full year was strong, and shareholders have seen that reflected in the stock. That said, as I’ve mentioned repeatedly, the entire bull thesis really hinges on Neutron. Now we’re facing a third delay, and while it’s understandable—developing a brand-new rocket can be unpredictable—it still raises concerns. If we’re honest, the real upside case here is all about Neutron. Yes, the company’s space systems and the Electron rocket are doing well, but they’ll have to ramp up massively just to make it to profitability on their own. Neutron, on the other hand, would relieve that pressure significantly—but continued delays, with no guarantee of eventual success or reliability, all while burning volatile amounts of cash, aren’t exactly comforting. This is what The Street punished them for. Still, it's important to give credit where it's due: Rocket Lab is indeed executing impressively on the existing business lines, and that’s no small feat being in the space economy with no margin of error.
Cash burn/Profitability
The company is still operating at a loss (I think we all assume and expect this for a while), with an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $23.2M in Q4. While this was slightly better than expected, management acknowledged that cash burn will increase in Q1 2025. The main drivers of this increase include continued investment in Neutron, inventory purchases for space systems contracts, and a lack of milestone payments from major government programs such as their SDA contract.
They have already spent $200M of the projected $250-$300M investment on Neutron, meaning additional capex will be required before the rocket can generate revenue. RKLB expects about 50% of its $1.07B backlog to be recognized as revenue within 12 months, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to offset increasing cash burn. They are making progress, but without stronger margins and lower launch costs, it is still unclear when profitability will be reached.
Neutron Delays & Competitive Concerns
One of the biggest concerns fueling the decline was the delay in the Neutron rocket’s first launch, which has now been pushed to the second half of 2025 after previously being targeted for mid-2025. Management claims this shift is only a matter of months, but given the complexity of rocket development, there is always a risk of further delays. This is fair. They still need to complete several key milestones, including full vehicle integration and final engine qualification, before Neutron is ready for launch.
In addition to timeline risks, Neutron faces stiff competition from SpaceX’s Falcon 9 (we all know this), which currently dominates the medium-lift market. RKLB is positioning Neutron as a “monopoly breaker”, arguing that there is enough demand to support multiple providers. This is likely to be true, because it’s not a winner takes all market if you are just as reliable. That’s all that matters for payloads.
Electron Launch Cadence & Demand
RKLB initially aimed for 26+ Electron launches in 2025 but has now adjusted expectations to 20+ launches (market also did not like this). Management attributed this to customer readiness, not a decline in demand, and pointed out that the company has already signed several multi-launch deals for 2025 and 2026. However, the market took another approach to this.
One bright spot is the HASTE program (hypersonic testing for the Department of Defense), which continues to see strong demand. This program provides diversification for the business, reducing reliance on commercial satellite launches. It is very clear here, RKLB is in a strong growth phase, with a massive backlog, increasing launch demand, and ambitious plans for its Neutron and space systems businesses.
I’m absolutely not here to bash RKLB—I love this company and plan to keep building my position over time. The space economy is still in its infancy, and Rocket Lab is one of the few reliable launch providers around that will take a big piece of this pie. That said, I want to stay reasonable about how critical Neutron is to their long-term story. Sure, they could grow into a cash-generating powerhouse with their existing businesses alone, but that would require near-flawless execution and a boom in the overall space economy. Even with my concerns, though, I still view this as a strong long-term opportunity.